Zhu Wuxiang: Bomb Disruption Goodwill Thunderstorm

Zhu Wuxiang: Bomb Disruption Goodwill Thunderstorm

Bomb Disruption Goodwill Thunderstorm Original: Zhu Wuxiang goodwill is essentially a high-risk asset. To solve the problem of thunderstorms in which goodwill assets are impaired, the core is to avoid overvaluation 北京桑拿 of mergers and acquisitions and increase the success rate of mergers and acquisitions.

  The author of this journal Zhu Wuxiang / Wen Goodwill impairment storms came.

  On the eve of the Spring Festival in 2019, 120 listed companies are expected to exceed 1 trillion US dollars in 2018, nearly 60 listed companies have a pre-loss of more than 1 billion US dollars, and 8 companies have a pre-loss of more than 3 billion. The highest is Tianshen Entertainment (002354.

SZ) Pre-loss of 7.8 billion yuan.

What is even more shocking is that the amount of more than a dozen listed companies’ advance losses exceeded their market value.

For example, Tianshen Entertainment has a market value of 4.4 billion and a pre-deficit of 7.8 billion; Huaying Technology (000536).

SZ) with a market value of 50ppm and an estimated loss of 5.5 billion yuan; Huaye Capital (600240).

(SH) The market value is 3.2 billion, with a pre-determined loss of 5 billion; Liyuan Refined has a market value of 3.2 billion, with a pre-debt of 4.8 billion.

  The superficial cause of this phenomenon is the impairment provision of goodwill assets.

Because according to accounting standards, the difference between the purchase consideration and the net asset value of the acquired company is included in goodwill assets.

If the acquired company’s operating performance is not good, according to the existing principles of accounting stability, goodwill assets need to accrue bad debts at one time.

  Around 2015, in order to boost the market and solve the quality problems of listed companies, the government and regulators issued policies to encourage listed companies to conduct market value management and mergers and acquisitions, and the stock market was in a bull market.

  Many listed companies have a high premium (the net asset value of the acquired company) to acquire non-listed companies, especially emerging industries, and high-growth asset-light companies, which have accumulated billions of goodwill.

For example, Shanghai Rice (002252.

SZ) goodwill of 5.4 billion yuan, Wanda Films (002739).

SZ) Goodwill of 5.2 billion, Oriental Precision (002611).

SZ) 4.1 billion, Huayi Brothers (300027).

SZ) 3.6 billion, Leo shares (002131).

SZ) 3.2 billion, Songcheng Performing Arts (300144).

SZ) 2.4 billion, two three four five (002195).

SZ) 2.4 billion, Aotecar (002239).

SZ) 1.9 billion, Weiwei Culture (002502).

SZ) 1.8 billion.

  In order to avoid the risk of high-premium mergers and acquisitions, listed companies usually make a bet agreement with the actual controller of the acquired company three times in three years.

Three years later, many of the gambling agreements have expired, and the operating performance of a large number of acquired companies is far from their original commitments.

Following the current principles of accounting soundness, goodwill assets need to accrue bad debts at one time.

  Because the operating income and profit scale of these listed companies are not large, the net profit is between one-thousandths to millions; during the downturn of the stock market, the market value scale is billions.

Therefore, withdrawing billions of dollars of goodwill assets into bad debts at one time, billions of dollars are formed, exceeding the company’s market value!

  The phenomenon of thunderstorms for impairment of goodwill assets has led to reflections, mainly focusing on the accounting treatment of goodwill.

However, it is not enough from the perspective of accounting standards to solve the problem of thunderstorms for impairment of goodwill assets.

Because goodwill originates from a merger that has already occurred and is a sunk cost; huge amounts of goodwill assets are derived from a high valuation relative to the net asset value of the acquired company, while the impairment of goodwill stems from the poor operating performance of the acquired company.
Therefore, the core of reducing the risk of goodwill is to avoid overestimation of mergers and acquisitions and improve the success rate of mergers and acquisitions.

  This article discusses the causes of the high risk of goodwill assets, and proposes some solutions to avoid high expectations of mergers and acquisitions.

  The causes of high risk of goodwill assets can be divided into two categories: endogenous inherent reasons and exogenous enhanced causes.

  Among them, the endogenous inherent causes of goodwill risk are firstly due to the definition of corporate value and discount estimation models.

  The definition of corporate value in modern finance is the discounted value of the free cash flow expected to be generated in the future. The specific estimation model includes the most basic free cash flow discount model and the stock market. Investors in the private equity market are guided by a variety of comparable models.Company evaluation model, comparable company evaluation model can be converted into future expected free cash flow discount model.

  When using an enterprise evaluation model to evaluate an enterprise, it is assumed that the enterprise is sustainable and will not experience a financial crisis or be able to survive it.

For normal operating companies, when using the free cash flow discount model, there are usually two stages to predict free cash flow: the first stage is the growth period, usually 5-10 years; the second stage is the sustainable operating period, fromStarting from the 6th to 11th years, discounting the future free cash flow predicted in the two stages to the present is the enterprise value, which usually exceeds the net asset value.Therefore, if mergers and acquisitions, goodwill will arise.

  For companies in the mature stage, the estimate in the second stage accounts for about 30% of the total enterprise valuation; for emerging growth companies, the free cash flow in the first stage is negative, so the company valuation in the first stage is negative;It is estimated that the proportion of the second stage will exceed 100%.

For example, Mobike, OFO . Maybe, this is high risk under uncertain business conditions inside and outside the enterprise and in a competitive environment!

  Because it is difficult for most companies to achieve continuous growth and sustainable operation, the period of continuous growth and operation will not be too long; or they will fail because of lack of competitiveness, or because of changes in the economic environment, encounter financial crisis or even go bankrupt.

  For example, film and television companies can’t guarantee that they can shoot high-grossing film and television works every year. Game companies can’t guarantee that they can develop high-profit games every year. Technology companies face technological change and model disruption, and they can’t guarantee victory in the competition.

Even the companies that are already at the head of the industry cannot guarantee the long-term foundation.

  Therefore, the discount model forms the inherent risk that the company estimates.

If the M & A target company is evaluated according to the discount model, the more optimistic the forecast of the company’s future earnings growth, the estimate will be converted, and the difference with the company’s net assets, that is, goodwill, will also increase the inherent risk of goodwill.
  In fact, the inherent endogenous causes of goodwill risk include the discount trading mechanism of the stock market.

  What does the stock market do?

Academically speaking is a place to optimize the allocation of resources in time and space. Realistically speaking, it is a place for corporate equity financing, a place for the discovery of corporate investment value, and a place for rapid appreciation or destruction of investment and wealth.

  In fact, the essence of the stock market is to provide a mechanism and place for discounted trading of expected future earnings of the enterprise.

Prior to the absence of the stock market, corporate equity transactions were estimated using the asset replacement value method.

After the emergence of the stock market, the discounted estimation method of future expected income naturally appeared.

When a company goes public, its founders and shareholders are often worth dozens of times, and their value has increased by dozens of times. People often call it “rich overnight”!

In fact, it’s just that the expected future earnings of the company are discounted.

In other words, investors are paying for and predicting future expected earnings based on the company’s sustainable growth and sustainable operating assumptions!

  Therefore, the definition and transformation of corporate value in modern finance, the discount estimation model, and the conversion into the stock market’s discount trading mechanism are realized.

However, in a real business environment, it is difficult for most companies to continue to grow and operate sustainably.

Therefore, estimating the purchase order and transaction according to the future expected return discount model objectively forms the inherent risk of corporate equity investment.

  The high external risk of goodwill assets The externally enhanced factors caused by goodwill risk are the investors’ potential expected future returns and discounted estimates, leading to high stock market multiples and raising the benchmark for M & A estimates.

  Stock market investors are trade-guided, and gradually investors will not use free cash flow discount models to value listed companies.

Because it requires a lot of information and expertise, it is relatively complicated.

Investors usually use comparable company evaluation models, or technical map analysis, momentum analysis.

However, no matter what estimation model and pricing method is used, the price of stocks bought or sold is based on the discounted future expected earnings of the company.

  Historical experience shows that whenever a technological revolution occurs, a number of new and emerging high-growth companies will emerge.

In the past ten years, the Internet, biomedicine, new media, new retail, artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, new materials and other technological innovations have made breakthroughs in total, coupled with new models, a large number of new enterprises have emerged.

Investors are often optimistic about the continued growth capabilities of these emerging companies, and listed companies merging these emerging industry companies have given an optimistic response.

Because there are indeed some emerging industry companies that have achieved operating scale, continued high growth in operating performance and stock market value, some investors have soared wealth.

  If other policies are promoted, for example, good macro fundamentals, loose capital and loose regulatory policies will create a bull market.

The results show that listed companies, especially those in emerging industries and companies that wish to go public, generally have high market value multiples (PR, EDITDA, PE, PB multiples are high).

  For example, Chongqing Beer (600132.

(SH) As a regional beer company, its beer business is estimated based on the industry’s average P / E ratio of 25 times, with a market value of only about 4 billion.

However, as there is another hepatitis B vaccine project under development, investors are optimistic that its market value once reached 28.6 billion, surpassing Tsingtao Beer (600,600.

SH), the price-earnings ratio is more than 100 times.

Stormwind Group (300431.

(SZ) was listed on the GEM on March 24, 2015. The 40 cases of listing went up and down 36 consecutive stops, starting from the issue price of 7.

14 yuan soared to 327.

At 01 yuan, it set a record for daily limit of A shares. The total market value soared to 34 billion yuan, and the price-earnings ratio reached hundreds of times.

  Based on optimistic expected future earnings and discounting existing high market value multiples, it implies that the continued growth in the next 5-10 years is very high.Establishing a company does not actually have the ability to achieve it, or the probability of realization is low.

However, it has formed a market value performance that greatly exceeds the net asset value, which has become a reference for the issue of listed companies’ mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations, which implies a huge amount of goodwill risk.

For example, Chongqing Beer plunged for a long time because of the successful replacement of the hepatitis B vaccine clinical trial!

Storm Group subsequently experienced a series of operational problems, which dropped sharply. At the end of 2018, the market value dropped to 90% from its highest value.

  In fact, the external enhancement factors arising from goodwill risk also include listed companies’ estimates of M & A and M & A integration risks based on the market’s high market value multiples benchmark.

  M & A is a routine and important way for companies to grow.

In order to achieve the existing growth of existing business, or to protect the shell, the listed company’s actual controller will merge and acquire a company with good growth prospects, obtain the financial performance of the acquired company, and control its resources; or the purpose is to speculate and cater toMarket hype concept, M & A with high market value.

  Regardless of the motivation, the acquisition of a company also uses a discounted estimation model of future expected returns based on the definition of enterprise value.

Because if the merged company operates normally, it is impossible to accept the assets recognized in accounting and sell the controlling stake of the company at the historical cost or replacement cost of the assets, because this means that it does not recognize the company’s operating capabilities.

  Listed companies are operating guides. They can reasonably go through detailed due diligence to understand more about the internal operating status of the merged and acquired companies than external investors in transaction guidance, make more realistic assumptions, and then use the most basic free cash flow discount.The model estimates, rather than refers to stock market trading guidance, investors based on potential expected market value multiples.

  However, in reality, both parties to an M & A transaction and the M & A financial adviser often refer to the multiples of the market value of comparable companies in the stock market to value the M & A company.

In a bull market, the optimistic expectations of the stock market have led to high market value multiples for high-growth companies in emerging industries.

In addition, good M & A companies have strong negotiation levels.

If the acquirer’s listed company gives the M & A company a low multiple, the M & A company will not accept it.

The merged company will think that if it is listed on its own, it is estimated that it will be higher based on the market value of comparable companies.

Therefore, when a listed company merges and acquires in a bull market, the evaluation and goodwill of the acquired company will also increase with the market.

  In addition, new technologies, new economies, new models of enterprises, less tangible assets, operating capabilities, IP and other intangible assets are involved.

According to accounting standards, it belongs to asset-light companies.

It is estimated that the net assets are small, and the goodwill assets are naturally higher.

  However, historical experience and empirical research show that the risk of achieving expected returns after mergers and acquisitions is relatively high.

In addition, after a high-buy multiple acquisition in a bull market, the actual operating performance is often very different from what was originally expected.

  Why is it not easy to achieve the expected benefits after the merger?

M & A seems to just replace the controlling shareholder of the enterprise, but M & A faces three major risk factors.

  The first is the risks inherent in the business development and future expected earnings of the acquired company.

  Even if it is not acquired, in the actual business environment, the original company’s continued operation and future expected returns are inherently risky.

Including changes in external economic conditions such as the state of macroeconomic prosperity, industrial policies, and financial market financing conditions, as well as changes in conditions such as the company’s own operating strategies and competitive advantages.

  For example, who can predict the eagle farming and animal husbandry (002477) of 2017 net profit of 45.19 million yuan.

SZ), with a pre-debt loss of 3.3 billion yuan in 2018!

Who Can Foresee Zhangzi Island (Protection of Rights) (002069.

SZ) Scallops are missing by the cold water mass!

In addition, new technologies, new economies, and new models of emerging companies are operating with stability and sustainable capabilities that are still in the process of being cultivated, with high operating risks.

  The second is the control and integration risk of the acquirer’s ability to acquire the resources of the acquired enterprise.

  An enterprise is a transaction structure formed by several stakeholders with different resource capabilities.

After the replacement of the controlling shareholder, the assets under the name of the corporate legal person can be controlled, but the resource capacity controlled by other non-corporate legal persons may be stuck with the original controlling shareholder.

For example, the resources of team, user and even brand are related to controlling shareholders.

For example, Lenovo’s acquisition of IBM PC faces the risk that the US government, a 10% user, will lose information under the pretext of information security.

  The acquisition of controlling shares replaced a key transaction subject-the shareholder-in the original stakeholder transaction structure. It may also change the attitudes and behaviors of other stakeholders, working systems, management practices, different habits, difficult integration, and may occur.Exclusion and suffering.

  If the new controlling shareholder’s reputation, strength, and resource capacity cannot bring sufficient synergistic value-added effects, the original stakeholder transaction relationship may be weakened, and the ability to control and use the resources of the acquired enterprise will be greatly discounted.

For example, the original leader, the user did not cooperate, did not recognize, negatively responded, the motivation of the acquiree’s operating team, the sense of responsibility decayed, and even left the company to establish another mountain, leading to the loss of key resource capabilities and orders.

  The third is the risk of fraud and concealment of major hidden dangers by the actual controller of the acquired company.  The actual controller of the acquired enterprise may also collude with the intermediary agency and the relevant personnel of the acquirer, cooperate internally and externally, and cheat.
For example, providing false orders, reserves, financial performance, and possibly concealing significant negative and risk information.
For example, hidden guarantees, contingent liabilities, tax non-compliance and other risks lead to high valuation risks.
Even with due diligence, it’s hard to spot for a while.
  Therefore, if the risk of achieving the expected return after the merger is high, it will undoubtedly increase the risk of goodwill assets!
  On May 23, 2016, the Fengfeng Group co-investors set up an acquisition fund and acquired the asset-light European sports copyright agency MP & Silva Holding S. at a valuation of US $ 1.4 billion.
A (hereinafter referred to as “MPS”) 65% of the shares.
  MPS is a company founded by three Italians in 2004. In the more than ten years that the global sports copyright market has been rapidly heating up, MPS has gradually grown from an unknown little player to a prominent copyright giant.
At the time, it had copyrights in more than a dozen top international events such as the World Cup, the Premier League, Serie A, Ligue 1, the French Open, F1, NFL, and NBA.
  However, after the storm group’s M & A fund entered the MPS, MPS went downhill.
In October 2017, MPS lost to rival IMG in the bidding for international copyright in Serie A. This is also the first time that MPS has lost Serie A copyright since its establishment.
In the same year, BeIN seized the copyright of Ligue 1 from MPS.
Since then, MPS has been losing ground in the sports copyright market, and due to the inability to pay copyright fees, some major copyright parties have terminated their contracts with MPS in advance, and some have directly brought them to court.
  In October 2018, with the Bankruptcy Liquidation Order of the British High Court, the once brilliant MPS became history.
  Obviously, the acquisition of MPS companies will face the above three risks: their own operational risks, integration risks, and the moral risks of the founder of the acquiree.
  Measures to reduce the risk of goodwill impairment The key to solving the problem of goodwill risk is not how to measure goodwill and change the accounting treatment of goodwill, but to avoid high-value mergers and acquisitions and improve the success rate of mergers and acquisitions.
This article mainly proposes some countermeasures on how to avoid high valuation of mergers and acquisitions.
  For the actual controller of a listed company, first of all, it is necessary to change the concept of corporate control, and not to acquire or discount the future earnings of the company to be acquired.
  Without a controlled acquisition of the shares of the acquired company, there is no need to discount the uncertain future expected earnings of the acquired company.
Mergers and acquisitions are usually aimed at gaining control over the performance and resource capabilities of the acquired company.
But there are many ways to control the resource capacity of an enterprise, and it does not have to be achieved through capital holding acquisitions.
  Such as order control.
Li & Fung provided 30% -70% of orders to partner factories, and Apple bought out the supply of GATA’s sapphire screens.
  Operational resource capacity enables transaction + revenue sharing.
The Xiaomi Mode Intelligent Hardware Ecological Chain Division provides qualified entrepreneurial enterprises with the resources and capabilities formed by the mobile phone business, including: customer capacity, brands, supply chain management, product design, investment and other resource capabilities to empower entrepreneurial enterprises., Do not seek a shareholding, and start-up business revenue sharing.
  Establish a joint venture with a specific operation of the acquired company rather than acquiring the entire enterprise.
For example, joint ventures set up sales companies, joint venture factories, joint research and development, and joint venture management companies.
  Joint venture with the management team to lease the assets of the original corporate legal person, including patents and brands.
  Custody of the acquired company and incremental revenue sharing.
  Secondly, the actual controller of a listed company should also change its acquisition strategy and reduce the discounted valuation of the acquired company.
  Mergers and acquisitions in the reverse of the market value cycle of the stock market, that is, mergers and acquisitions during the trough period of the stock market’s multiples.
Acquisition of corporate assets, etc. using the replacement cost method.
  Thirdly, the actual controller of a listed company can also adjust the discount strategy and payment method of the acquisition valuation to maintain flexibility.
  Discounted valuation and payment of consideration in stages.
  For companies with high expected return risks in the future, discounted in stages.
For example, discounting the expected income of 2-3 years as a period, and re-evaluating each period to avoid discounting the expected returns of the uncertain and risky sustainable operating assumptions at one time.
  Discounted valuation based on conservative forecast of the future earnings of the merged company + give the shareholders of the merged company a call option.
  It is difficult for companies to control the market capitalization multiples of the stock market, but it is not passive to accept the market capitalization multiples benchmark to value the acquired company.
If the stock market or private equity market or the M & A market has high value multiples for companies in the relevant industry, the valuation premium of the acquired company will rise to a high level; or the valuation multiple given by the acquired company itself is relatively high, resulting in the valuation of both partiesThe results are very different, you can abandon the M & A transaction; you can also adjust the valuation strategy and design a new M & A transaction payment method to achieve a win-win transaction.
  The acquirer can adopt the conservative assumption of low growth or no growth for the acquired company, predict its future earnings, and then discount the valuation; at the same time, set the acquired company to buy the acquirer’s company’s stock at a predetermined share price in the next few yearsOptions.In this way, the contribution of the shareholders of the acquired enterprise can be compensated based on the actual performance of the acquired enterprise.

  Discounted estimates based on the optimistic forecast of the future earnings of the acquired company + bearish budget.

  If the M & A company evaluates the high price and cannot get down, you can also recognize the overvaluation first, but set yourself a compensation for the bear price.

In the first half of 2010, Chongqing Beer was sought after by investors for its hepatitis B vaccine, which has a market value of 28.6 billion yuan.

The value of its beer business is estimated to be only about 40 trillion at a normal P / E ratio.

On June 18, 2010, Carlsberg took some 40.

22 yuan (including the stock market’s optimistic expectation of hepatitis B vaccine success), 23.

8% purchased Chongqing Beer from the state-owned controlling shareholder of Chongqing Beer.

25% equity, the shareholding ratio increased to 29.

71%.

Due to the unsuccessful clinical testing of the hepatitis B vaccine, it continued to plummet, falling below Carlsberg’s increase in holding prices and floating losses6.

9.8 billion yuan.

  In fact, Carlsberg can purchase Chongqing Beer shares at the level that includes the stock market’s optimistic forecast of the success of the hepatitis B vaccine, but it needs to add a bearish subsidy.

That is, at the beginning, only the future expected discounted earnings of the beer business are paid. It is agreed that if the hepatitis B vaccine is unsuccessful, the future optimistic expected discounted earnings of the hepatitis B vaccine will not be paid.

  In addition, Carlsberg can also acquire only the beer business and not the high-risk research hepatitis B vaccine business.

  Phased acquisitions, setting up options to increase shareholdings, increase understanding and trust, and maintain scale rather than a one-time acquisition.

  At the time of acquisition, one-off payments are not discounted according to the expected future earnings, nor is it a three-year bet. Instead, the acquired profits are used to pay for the purchase.

  In addition, listed companies can also increase the transaction structure and resource capacity of their stakeholders during mergers and acquisitions to avoid optimistic assumptions and expectations.

  Many companies have difficulty in integration after mergers and acquisitions, and the resources and capabilities they hope to control are lost or duplicated after the acquisitions, indicating that the existing due diligence content and transaction structure design are flawed.

In addition to the current mainstream financial due diligence, tax due diligence, legal due diligence, and business due diligence, corporate stakeholder transaction structures and resource capabilities should be increased, including human resources due diligence.

In the future, the status and scale of human resources will become more prominent and more liquid. The due diligence content and the design of new transaction structures will need to be increased, instead of the traditional due diligence and transaction structure of corporate asset-dependent companies.
  The content of due diligence includes: internal and external stakeholders and transaction structure of the acquired company, what are the resources and capabilities of income?

Who owns these resource capabilities?

Or who controls these resource capabilities?

Corporate?

Key operator?

team?

Damage between these resource capabilities?

How will the stakeholders of the company react after the acquisition?

Substitution of the acquirer’s resource capabilities to the acquired enterprise’s resource capabilities?

Synergistic status between resource capabilities?

  The actual controller of the acquirer, and the executives need to communicate with the actual controller of the acquired company and members of the operating team, supplementary verification with the due diligence of the intermediary agency, and determine whether there is consensus on the values and business philosophy of the acquired company’s team.Are there any hidden dangers and whether they can be trusted?

  According to the results of due diligence, it is clear that the continued operation of the merged and acquired company depends on the supplementary resource capacity: the type of corporate legal person resource capacity dependency?

Human resource capability dependent?

Or two combined types?

Careful assumptions on the business plan after mergers and acquisitions, designing the resource capacity transaction structure, not just the corporate overall transaction structure.

Including transaction methods, payment arrangements, and additional conditions.

  For human resource-dependent enterprises, cash + stock payment arrangements are usually required to require the realized shareholder’s controlling shareholder’s shares to realize the purchase of the acquirer’s company’s shares, and issue restricted stocks to the acquirer’s shareholders to undertake high-value acquisitionRisk of failure.

For example, the payment method for Facebook’s acquisition of What’app for $ 19 billion is: $ 12 billion FaceBook stock + $ 4 billion cash + $ 3 billion founder and employee shares.

  For investors, it is necessary to treat and estimate the mergers and acquisitions of listed companies with caution.  Investors are transaction-oriented. They can manage investment risks by diversifying portfolio investments, but they also bear the risk of overvalued goodwill in mergers and acquisitions.

Practice has shown that M & A has a high risk of achieving expected returns.

Based on this, the European and American stock markets are usually re-reacting to mergers and acquisitions of listed companies.

  Therefore, it should not be easy to applaud the mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, especially cross-industry mergers and acquisitions and human resource-dependent light asset companies.

Such enterprises are optimistically forecasting future returns and discounting estimated estimates. After acquisition, the mentality, motivation, and responsibility of the actual controller and management team are likely to change, and key resource capabilities may be lost, increasing the business risks and integration skills of the acquired company.

Investors need one more statement on the overvalued mergers and acquisitions 厦门夜网 of listed companies, multiple statements on the ability of the merged and acquired companies to continue their operations and income growth, and multiple doubts on the ability of listed companies to integrate and merge.

  It is necessary to pay attention to the measures and transaction design of listed companies to avoid overestimating mergers and acquisitions, and to be good at responding to or using their feet to cast democracy, just as investors in the shareholders’ meeting in 2018 rejected Gree Electric (000651).

(SZ) The offer of Yinlong Automobile approved by the board of directors.

  The author is a professor in the Department of Finance, School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University

Jinzhi Technology (002090): The main business focus will soon be on the ubiquitous power IoT construction

Jinzhi Technology (002090): The main business focus will soon be on the ubiquitous power IoT construction
Event: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019, which reported a combined revenue of 8%.45 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.91%; net profit attributable to mother is 92.48 million yuan, an annual increase of 60.18%, EPS per share is 0.23 yuan. The company’s strategy is initially clear and focused on smart energy and smart cities.Beginning in the second half of 2018, the company is gradually adjusting its business areas to shift business conversion 成都桑拿网 intervals with heavier assets and less relevance to strategic directions.In December 2018, the company divested its 10% stake in Nanjing Tunnel Bridge to the Group.In the first half of 2019, the company transferred the EPC business entity Ganhua Power to Jinzhi Group, and transferred 100% of Bulgaria’s 8MW photovoltaic power plant, which brought a total of 1,774 million non-recurring income; the transfer of Zijin Trust 2A 45% stake brings a profit of 62.39 million yuan.Subsequent companies will further do business integration and promote highly focused and deeply integrated business. Profitability has gradually recovered and various operating indicators have been good.The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin for the half year of 2019 were 39.42% and 7.42%, up 7 each year.72 points and 0.3 pounds, the product gross profit margin is 39.33%, an increase of 2 over the same period in 2018.99 carats.The expense ratio is basically stable. In the second quarter of 2019, the three expense ratios totaled.25%, a decrease of 8 from the same period in 2018.37 points.As the company divested its assets to focus on its main business, the scale of assets declined, but the asset-liability ratio decreased by 10 compared with the same period last year.18%, the future financial expense ratio is still expected to further decline.In 19H1, the company’s cash revenue accounted for 101%, and its cash flow situation has improved significantly compared to the same period last year. The net cash flow from operating activities turned negative. The flood of power IoT construction will bring new opportunities for the company’s development.State Grid in March 2019 proposed a comprehensive deployment of ubiquitous electric power IoT construction, a two-step strategy, and plans to fully build ubiquitous electric power IoT by 2024.2019 will be the first year of launch. The annual construction plan has been initially issued. There are 57 major construction tasks proposed from six internal and external sources, of which 27 will be promoted in 2019.The company’s substation comprehensive automation, power distribution automation, line monitoring, inspection robots, information and communication infrastructure and other related products and businesses are all ubiquitous in the induction layer and network layer of the electric power Internet of Things, and are expected to usher in new opportunities for development.In addition, the company is actively deploying ubiquitous electric power IoT application scenarios, and has successively cooperated with State Grid Jiangsu Integrated Energy Service Company and Daquan Group to expand the ubiquitous electric power IoT integrated energy service application.According to the research of the State Grid Energy Research Institute, from the perspective of the integrated energy service basic business and terminal energy demand, the potential scale of the integrated energy service market can reach USD 500-600 billion by 2020. The company’s new generation of intelligent terminals has been successfully researched and developed, and made a good technical and product reserve for full participation in ubiquitous construction.The intelligent distribution transformer terminal is used to realize the measurement, communication, protection, fault location, isolation and power recovery of the switching network, distribution transformer monitoring data analysis, operation and maintenance, etc. The products include DTU, FTU, TTU, fault indicators, etc.According to the deployment of the State Grid Corporation of China, starting from 2019, with intelligent distribution transformer terminals as the core, an integrated monitoring and control system for low and medium voltage based on the Internet of Things will be built to significantly improve the overall coverage of the intelligent distribution station area.In the first half of 2019, the company’s self-developed new-generation intelligent switch terminal iPACS-5612T based on Huawei’s domestic chip and edge computing architecture was successfully developed and successfully won the bid in the North Hebei Power Grid.The construction of the “Internet” has laid a solid foundation. Investment recommendation: Maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, with a 6-month target price of 15.00 yuan.We expect the company’s revenue growth to be 4 in 2019-2021.3%, 6.0%, 13.3%, net profit growth rate was 66.9%, 64.1%, 27.7%, EPS is 0.38, 0.62, 0.80 yuan.Maintain BUY-A investment rating with 6-month target price of 15.00 yuan. Risk warning: The spread of the State Grid is slow in the advancement of the Internet of Things; the company’s internal business integration is weak; the progress of smart terminal bidding is gradually expected or the competition is too fierce.

Shuijingfang (600779): The continuous improvement of the structure and the positive expenditure

Shuijingfang (600779): The continuous improvement of the structure and the positive expenditure

The event suffered the impact 西安耍耍网 of high-cost launches and earnings, and Q2 profit growth improved.

The company announced its 2019 Interim Report, which achieved revenue of 16 in 19H1.

90,000 yuan, an increase of 26 in ten years.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 3.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.

0%, corresponding to basic EPS0.

70 yuan / share.

Among them, 19Q2 achieved revenue of 7.

600 million yuan, an increase of 29.

3%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

20,000 yuan, an increase of 7 in ten years.

5%.

The core point of view is that both the volume and price of products have risen, and the structure has continued to upgrade.

In terms of volume and price, excluding the influence of bulk wine, the sales volume of liquor in 19H1 increased by 22% and revenue increased by 26%. Benefiting from the core product price increase and structural upgrade, the ton price exceeded 3%.

From the perspective of products, 19H1 company’s high-end, mid-range and low-end wines achieved revenue of 16 respectively.

100 million (+25.

7%), 0.

400 million (+21.

1%), 0.

4.4 billion (+77.

8%).

Among the premium wines, the revenue of the second-to-high-end production line increased by 32%, and the product structure was further concentrated in the core areas of collections, such as Jingtai, Zhenjing No.8; the rapid growth of low-grade wine revenue was mainly due to the increase in casual wine sales.

There are many blossoms outside the province, and the progress of nationalization has steadily advanced.

In terms of regions, the 19H1 company achieved revenue 1 within and outside the province.

600 million (+20.

0%), 15.

200 million (+27.

8%), the proportion of income outside the province increased to 89.

9%.

Central District and North District performed dazzlingly, and their income increased by 41.

9%, 40.

6%; the growth rate of the southern, eastern and western regions reached 25.

0%, 19.

6%, 12.

6%, multi-point flowering and balanced development.

The company steadily promotes the nationwide layout. Based on intensive cultivation of the ten core markets, the company explores five emerging markets in Hebei, Shandong, Jiangxi, Shaanxi and Guangxi, new general generation, new regions, and new channel models to promote the continued expansion of the sales network.Harvest market share has grown.

The profitability has been continuously enhanced, and brand building has been held high.

Mainly benefiting from factors such as product price adjustments, structural improvements, and scale effects, the company’s gross profit margin in 19H1 reached 82.2% (+1.

1pct).

In order to increase brand awareness and strengthen the promotion of new products, the company’s advertising expenses and promotional fees increased significantly in the first half of the year, driving the sales expense ratio to 32.

0% (+0.

6 pct); under the dilute income growth, the management cost is 7.

6% (-2.

1pct).
Affected by the increase in tax rate and interest rate growth, the company’s net sales margin in the first half of the year was 20.

1% (+0.

1pct).
Financial forecast and investment recommendations Considering that the company’s sales of premium wines are slightly higher than expected, and the sales of low-end wines (including loose wines) have grown rapidly, we have raised our income forecasts for high-end wines and low-end wines; branding and product promotion have significantly increased advertising costs and promotion fees, We raised our sales expense ratio forecast.

Adjust the company’s EPS forecast for 19-21 to 1.

52, 1.

91, 2.

35 yuan (the original forecast for 19-21 was 1).

61, 2.

02, 2.

44 yuan).

We use the DCF assessment method and give a target price of 48.

86 yuan, corresponding to 32 times PE in 19 years, maintain BUY rating.

Risks indicate the risk of product price fluctuations, consumer demand is lower than expected risks, and market competition intensifies risks.

What do insurance companies invest across borders? Nursing care and technology are mostly involved in the funeral industry

What do insurance companies invest across borders? Nursing care and technology are mostly involved in the funeral industry
Original title: What do insurance companies invest across borders? Nursing care, mostly technology, also involved in the funeral industry Source: Daily Economic News Every reporter Yuan Yuan Every editor Liao Dan On December 11, Junkang Life Insurance Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Junkang Life) in the China Insurance Industry AssociationThe website released an announcement title, the company has recently gradually passed the relevant standards and agreed to increase capital of 700 million yuan to Beijing Bohao Ruiting Hotel Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as Bohao Ruiting Hotel).According to public information, the Radisson Blu Hotel is mainly engaged in accommodation, hairdressing, bathing and swimming.  ”Daily Economic News” reporter noticed that this is not the only cross-border investment of Junkang Life this year. Its third quarter solvency report shows that at the end of the third quarter, Junkang Life added a total of 5 new equity participation companies in 2019, of which 5Three are holding subsidiaries, the industry involves real estate, hotels, etc.  It is worth mentioning that it is not the Junkang family who like cross-border investment.With the expansion of investment channels, insurance capital has continued to move across borders.A reporter from “Daily Economic News” combed the information disclosed on the official website of the China Insurance Industry Association and found that cross-border investment by insurance companies, the majority of the subsidiary companies focus on pension care, technology, but there are also hotels and real estate.Surprisingly, it also includes the lucrative funeral industry.  The announcement of the planned capital increase of 700 million yuan to the Bohao Ruiting Hotel shows that on November 26, 2019, the 50th meeting of the fourth board of directors of Junkang Life, and approved the “About Junkang Life Insurance Co., Ltd. to Beijing BohaoThe Budget of Ruiting Hotel Co., Ltd.’s Capital Increase and Related Transaction Agreement “agreed to increase the investment of 700 million yuan into the Bauhaus Ruiting Hotel, of which the additional capital of 600 million US dollars was included in the registered capital of 34427.360,000 yuan, included in the capital reserve of 25572.64 million; provided 1 million shareholders’ loan, and signed a loan agreement at that time according to the actual capital requirements of the project for the renovation of the Bohao Ruiting Hotel.  The independent directors of Junkang Life believe that the increase in registered capital and related party transactions to the holding subsidiary has reached the internal reorganization approval process of the company, and there is no substance that harms the interests of the company and all shareholders, especially small and medium shareholders, and there is no benefit transmission.Illegal transactions such as transfers are in compliance with relevant laws and regulations, departmental regulations and the company’s articles of association.  According to public information, the Radegast Hotel Bohao was established on August 1, 2008. The business scope includes accommodation, hairdressing, bathing, swimming, catering services, conference and exhibition services, sports events management, and cultural and art exchange activities (excludingPerformances), technology promotion services, public parking services, rental of computers and auxiliary equipment.  ”Daily Economic News” reporter noticed that this is not the first time that Junkang Life has been associated with Bohao Ruiting Hotel.Qixinbao information shows that on May 28, 2019, the shareholders of Berhao Radin Hotel have been changed to Junkang Life and Beijing Norman Financial Consulting Co., Ltd.According to the information disclosed by Junkang Life, Junkang Life holds a total of 94% of the shares of Howard Johnson Hotel.  It is worth mentioning that 15 institutions have invested in the third quarter. The investment and capital increase of the hotel are just one of the many cross-border investments of Junkang Life.Jun Kang Life’s third quarter solvency report shows that as of the end of the third quarter, Jun Kang Life’s subsidiaries, joint ventures and associates had reached 15, of which 5 were newly added this year.  The investment direction of Junkang Life is very broad. Specifically, there are 10 holding companies. Among them, Junkang Insurance Brokers (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. and Shengtang Rongxin Insurance Agency (Beijing) Co., Ltd. are companies in the insurance industry chain.Among the remaining 8 companies, Harbin Junkang Spring Summer Autumn Winter Property Co., Ltd., Junkang Lianyi Enterprise Management Co., Ltd., Dalian Junkang Kaidan Real Estate Co., Ltd., Chongqing Yixin Commercial Management Co., Ltd., Chongqing Liangjiang New District Real Hotel Management Co., Ltd., Beijing CentralYan Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. has no direct relationship with the main insurance industry on the industrial chain.  In addition, the five companies of Junkang Life Investment Co., Ltd. are not closely related to the main insurance industry, mainly covering financing, asset management and other industries.  Taking Luoyang Nonferrous Metals Trading Center Co., Ltd., which Junk Life participated in the investment as an example, the relevant information shows that the registered capital of Luoyang Nonferrous Metals Trading Center is 100 million US dollars. Based on the main raw materials of the aluminum industry chain, it provides settlement for commodity spot transactions.And supporting financial services and warehousing 北京桑拿洗浴保健 and logistics services.  Junkang Life introduced in the disclosure materials that participating in the construction of the trading center responds to the state ‘s call for financial services to the real economy, and integrates the financial industry with the physical industry to serve the upstream and downstream companies in the nonferrous industry to achieve a win-win situation.The development direction of the trading center is clear and the market prospect is broad. It is expected to create better long-term investment returns for the company.  Insurers favor the medical and health sector. In fact, it is Junkang Life that focuses on cross-border investment. The affiliated insurance companies are enthusiastic about cross-border investment. They have extended their tentacles to many fields such as pension, medical care and technology.  According to the data disclosed by the China Insurance Industry Association, 5 of the 9 non-insurance subsidiaries disclosed by Xinhua Insurance are related to health care and pensions; of the 13 non-insurance subsidiaries disclosed by CPIC Life Insurance, 4 are related to health care and pensions.Pension related; Of the 13 non-insurance subsidiaries disclosed by Taiping Life, 2 are related to health care and pension.  The insurance companies with a shorter establishment have focused their investments on the areas of health care and pensions. For example, the three non-insurance subsidiaries disclosed by Love Life have replaced institutions in the fields of health care and pensions.  In addition, insurance companies have also entered the medical, health and pension fields through acquisitions and joint establishments.For example, Taikang Insurance Group contributed 20.623.6 billion yuan strategic investment in Bybo Dental Medical Group.  At the same time, some individuals believe that retirement and medical treatment can broaden the investment channels of insurance companies and help the development of the real economy. They can also connect financial insurance products such as medical insurance, nursing insurance and endowment insurance, and open up the matching channels between insurance company assets and liabilities andThe service channels for customers and insurance companies serve multiple purposes.  In addition, among the non-insurance subsidiaries of insurance companies, there are also those whose business scope covers cemeteries, mineral water, vocational universities and other fields.For example, Fude (Baishan) Wheat Mineral Spring Co., Ltd., which belongs to Fude Life Life, mainly develops, produces, and sells bottles (cans) and cans, as well as carbonated drinks, fruit (vegetable) juice drinks, and health drinks;The Haikou Training Center of PICC Property & Casualty Insurance provides services for the training of cadres within the PICC Property & Casualty Insurance system.  What it means is that Taikang Life Insurance’s subsidiaries have large-scale funeral and cemetery businesses, such as Boluo County Luofu Pure Land Garden Development Co., Ltd., Beijing Jiugongshan Great Wall Memorial Forest Co., Ltd., Hubei Xianhe Lake Natural Ecological Humanities Memorial Park Co., Ltd.,Hubei Aiyouhui Life Memorial Garden Co., Ltd., etc., is mainly engaged in the design of funeral facilities, the development and sales of funeral supplies, and the funeral information consultation.

Zhongzhi shares (600038) brief evaluation report: the turning point in performance has now continued to grow momentum

Zhongzhi shares (600038) brief evaluation report: the turning point in performance has now continued to grow momentum

I. Overview of the event On March 20, the company released its 2018 annual report, which achieved 130 operating income.

66 ppm, an increase of 8 per year.

44%; net profit attributable to mothers5.

100,000 yuan, 12 per year.

07%.

Second, the analysis and judgment of the performance inflection point was significant, the gross profit margin dropped slightly in 2018, and the company achieved operating income of 130.

66 ppm, a ten-year increase of 8.

44%; net profit attributable to mother 5.

100,000 yuan, 12 per year.

07%.

Since 16 years, the company’s revenue has achieved positive growth for the first time, and net profit attributable to mothers has increased by more than two figures.

The report summarizes the company’s in-depth development of “one machine first flight”, “one machine demonstration”, “two machine forensics” and other work. The sales of civil aircraft have made steady progress and gradually stabilized the market.

The company’s gross profit margin is 13.

93%, 15 before 2017.

34% decreased slightly.

As some R & D projects have been completed, the gradual R & D expenses have fallen by more than 25%.

14%.

The 18-year three-fee ratio was 9.

97%, about 10 of 17 years.

44% decreased slightly, mainly due to the decrease in research and development expenses and interest expenses.

Helicopter manufacturing leader, pedigree is gradually improved. The company is the main force of the domestic helicopter manufacturing industry. The core products include straight 8, straight 9, straight 11, AC311, AC312, AC313 and other types of helicopters, which are in a leading position in technology in China.

After the improvement of the product structure adjustment and development, the main product model has been gradually upgraded, the helicopter pedigree has been perfected, and a good layout of “one machine with multiple types and series development” has basically been formed.

With the gradual maturity of the new sample, the company’s performance is expected to grow rapidly.

General-purpose helicopters are expected to be mass-produced. The company’s latest 10-ton general-purpose helicopters, which have a very broad market space, have appeared in the public eye many times. This model is intended to begin mass-production.

The currently equipped 10-ton helicopter is the Blackhawk S-70 helicopter produced by Sikorsky of the United States. The number is only 23, and the proportion of helicopters in it is very small.

In contrast, helicopters in the United States account for the largest proportion of 10-ton helicopters, with 2,858 10-ton helicopters, accounting for 53% of the total number of helicopters.

As a general-purpose helicopter that can adapt to any battlefield, we believe that the demand for the Zhi-20 market will exceed 1,000.

The general aviation market has gradually been liberalized, and the civil aircraft sector has continued to improve. Since the “12th Five-Year Plan” period, the state has successively formulated multiple guidance documents for the development of the civilian helicopter industry, including the “Opinions on Low-Altitude Airspace Management Reform,” which explicitly proposed that some low-altitude airspace be opened in 2015.Low-altitude airspace will be fully opened in 2020; the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” for General Aviation Development proposes that by 2020, the country is expected to reach more than 5,000 general aircraft and more than 500 general airports.

In the previous report, the company has gradually tested 5,280 flights / 8849 hours. In terms of civil aircraft sales, sales of various types of helicopters have made steady progress and gradually established the market.

Under the situation of vigorously developing the navigation market, the company’s civilian helicopter business is expected to grow rapidly.

Helicopter listing platform, asset securitization is worthy 杭州夜生活 of the company’s affiliation to China Aviation Industry Corporation. Its core assets include military helicopter parts and civil helicopter assembly, and it is the only overall listing platform for the aviation industry helicopter segment.

At present, the military helicopter assembly is still retained in Hafei Group and Changfei Group. Helicopter design and research and development are mainly in the Helicopter Research Institute (602).

With the merger and reform of scientific research institutes, the pace of asset securitization has gradually accelerated, and helicopter assets have been listed on the market as a whole.

Third, investment advice The company is the main force of the navy helicopter manufacturing industry. The inflection point in 2018 performance, we are optimistic about the company’s long-term development.

Expected company 2019?
EPS in 20201 will be 1.

03, 1.

22 and 1.
42 yuan, corresponding to PE 45X, 37X and 32X, the average 19-year average of comparable companies is 62X, given a “recommended” rating.
4. Risk warnings 1. The order of military aircraft is not up to expectations; 2. The development of the navigation market is slow; 3. The progress of institutional reform is slow

AVIC Sunda (000043): Attribute Focus Steps Forward, Technology Layout Leads Innovation

AVIC Sunda (000043): Attribute 天津夜网 Focus Steps Forward, Technology 重庆耍耍网 Layout Leads Innovation

The invention of the invention of the invention of the transformation and transformation of slimming and healthy properties, and the decline in gross profit performance to be stabilized: The decline in the current scale and performance was mainly due to the company’s strategy of transitioning to property management.The scale efficiency of business settlement decreased, and at the same time the company Huizhou Moling New Industrial Park Development and Construction Co., Ltd. went bankrupt and liquidated, withdrawing a total of 3732 asset impairment losses and credit impairment losses.

70,000 yuan, accounting for 46 of net profit.

15%.

  Property development continued to develop, and profitability was expected to increase: AVIC Property’s final 613 national property management projects in the first half of the year, with a management area of 76.34 million square meters, an increase of more than 2060 over the same period last year.

The influx of capital forces has been completely transformed, rising demand, technology applications, and “Internet + Property” have brought great imagination to the development of the property management industry.

The company has been exploring the information system since 2010.

We are optimistic about the company’s future to make full use of platform technology to empower property services and provide more personalized, professional and precise property management services.

  Real estate development continues to shrink and commercial operations continue to be enriched: In terms of commercial real estate operations, AVIC Jiufang Asset Management Co., Ltd. is a management platform for the company’s commercial operations.

  The company has begun to take shape in commercial real estate operations, and has formed a commercial management capability centered on the “Jiufang Shopping Center” brand. In the first half of the year, AVIC Jiufang managed 15 projects with a management area of 1.27 million square meters and realized rental income.2.

2.8 billion.

  China Merchants Property Consolidation Progress Speeds Up: On July 25, AVIC Sunda received a reply from the SASAC and agreed to hold AVIC International Holdings 22.

35% equity was transferred to China Merchants Shekou.

Once the transaction is completed, the combined management area will exceed 1.

200 million flats, ranking the forefront of the industry. In 2018, the revenue and property net profit of the property management sector were simply added to 66.

3.8 billion and 3.

09 billion yuan, the industry giant is taking shape.

  Profit forecast and investment grade: We are long-term optimistic about the company’s business development capabilities and property operation capabilities.

EPS are expected to be 0 in 19-20.

32, 0.

38 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Blum Oriental (601339) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Asset Allocation Income Affects Company Performance, New Capacity to Be Released

Blum Oriental (601339) 2018 Annual Report Comments: Asset Allocation Income Affects Company Performance, New Capacity to Be Released
Investment Highlights: Neutral Rating: 2018 Revenue 59.98 billion (+0 year-on-year.77%), net profit attributable to mother4.3.8 billion (+10 compared to the same period last year).30%).Taking into account the severe impact of the trade war and consumption, EPS is expected to reach 0 in 2019-2021.38 (-0.13) / 0.45 (-0.12) / 0.50 yuan, 16 times PE in 2019, with a target price of 6.07 yuan, downgraded to neutral rating. The production capacity was put into production on schedule, domestic sales were under pressure, and initial overseas volume was increased: Vietnam added 200,000 ingot production capacity. In 2018, domestic and Vietnamese production capacity were 700,000, 700,000 ingots.Annual capacity growth of 16.66%, driving output +10 for ten years.29% to 18.73 nominal.Affected by domestic consumption benefits, domestic 无锡夜网 sales revenue declined8.36%, overseas sales are growing at a rapid rate, increasing by 13 each year.67%, the two hedged, the initial sales reached 17.89 is the earliest, basically the same as last year. The gross profit margin of yarn decreased slightly, and the decline in long-term equity investment income affected performance.The gross profit margin of yarn sales was 18.69%, a decrease of 1 per year.49 points, mainly due to rising raw material costs. The expense ratio remained basically stable. Benefiting from the optimization of transportation routes, the sales expense ratio improved by zero.51 points.RMB exchange gains have narrowed, and financial expense ratios have fallen by 1.69 points.Affected by the severe investment and operating environment, investment income decreased by more than one.37 billion.Vietnam’s net interest rate is significantly higher than domestic, and Vietnam’s Blum has achieved income 24 in 18 years.63 ppm, an 18-year increase.76%, net profit 2.71 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.97%, with a net margin of 11%. 50% of low-cost cotton is expected to enjoy a large-scale inventory bonus: inventory increased by 50%.06% to 4.5 billion U.S. dollars, mainly because the Vietnamese market has purchased large quantities of low-cost cotton in preparation for standardized production.As the price of cotton stabilizes and rises, the company strives to enjoy low-price inventory dividends.Large reserves of raw materials reduce cash flow by 250 per year.16% to -5.5.9 billion.It is expected that procurement pressure will change in 19 years, and cash flow will gradually improve. Risk warning: RMB exchange rate risk, sales are lower than expected, cotton prices change abnormally.

Zhonggong Education (002607) Interview commented: 19H1 return to net profit doubled, online business volume and price both rose Q2 net operating cash flow growth in a single quarter

4% optimistic in the second half

Zhonggong Education (002607) Interview commented: 19H1 return to net profit doubled, online business volume and price both rose Q2 net operating cash flow growth in a single quarter

4% optimistic in the second half

Event: FY19H1, the company achieved revenue of 36.

370,000 yuan, +48.

8%, net profit attributable to mothers4.

930,000 yuan, +132.

2%, net of non-attributed net profit4.

720,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of +138.

8%.

成都桑拿网 Comments: 1. FY19H1 doubled net profit attributable to mother, face-to-face business grew steadily, online business developed rapidly, yoy + 205.

9%, FY19Q2 net operating cash flow in a single quarter +79.

4%, to provide support for the second half of the performance: (1) Revenue: FY19H1 face-to-face training business achieved steady growth, online training took off, and realized revenue4.

4.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of +205.

9%.

(2) Period expenses: FY19H1 period expenses 15.

2.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of +34.

2%, period expense ratio 41.

8%, a decrease of 4 over the same period last year.

6 average values, the sales / administration expense ratio decreased by 3 compared with the same period last year.

3/2.

3 units.

(3) Profitability: FY19H1, gross profit margin increased by 2 over the previous year.

Two averages, net profit attributable to mother 4.

930,000 yuan, +132.

2%, close to the upper limit of the notice, and the net profit attributable to the mother is 13.
.

6%, a rise of 4.

9 units.

FY19Q2, gross profit margin 57.

1%, an increase of 1.

7 averages, net profit attributable to mother 16.
.

6%, a rise of 0.

5 averages.

(4) Cash flow: FY19Q2 operating cash flow 19.

320,000 yuan, +79.

4% of cash received for sales of goods and services 36.
.
880,000 yuan, +49.

4%, both faster than the growth rate of revenue, FY19H1 period ending account receipts reached 56.

5.7 billion, supporting second-half results.
2. Multiple positive factors have promoted the steady development trend of the recruitment and training business. The recruitment of teachers and grass-roots public service positions has formed a new growth pole, and the volume and price of online business have risen.Provincial entrance examination enrollment shrinks by about a quarter, which has affected the increase in current performance to a certain extent, but multiple positive factors still lead to the steady development trend of recruitment training business.

In 19H1, the number of trainees gradually reached 178.

900,000 years and over 44.

35%.

(1) Civil servants and public institutions: The number of civil servant training in 19H1 increased by about 10, and the unit price was yoy + 15%.

The recruitment of civil servants and public institutions has achieved revenues of 18 respectively.

19/2.

150,000 yuan, +26.

3% / + 7.

0%.

(2) Teachers, comprehensive and online: 19H1, teacher recruitment and qualification business to achieve revenue 4.

320,000 yuan, +52.

2%.

The unit price of the new business, such as the postgraduate entrance examination and IT training, increased by more than 15%, and the revenue was 7.

02 ppm, +89 year-on-year.

43%.

(3) Online: The number of trainings reached 85.

810,000, a year-on-year increase of +62.

64%, the unit price is 518 yuan / person, yoy + 88.

1%, revenue 4.

450,000 yuan, +205.

9%.

(4) Channel terminal: At present, 880 learning center networks (direct management) covering 319 prefecture-level cities have been established.

(5) Teaching and research: The number of R & D and teaching staff at the end of 19H1 reached 1946/11694, respectively, an increase of 44 from the end of last year.

1% / 24.

1%.

(6) Recruitment: The proportion of marketing expenses to revenue is only 3.

1%, compared with 3.
.

9% further decreased, and the marketing expenses for individual training sessions were 62.

3 yuan, -19 years old.

6%.

3. Profit forecast and investment grade: We expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 18.

2/25.

8/31.

90,000 yuan, EPS is 0.

30/0.
42/0.

52 yuan, corresponding to PE of 50/35 / 28X, 杭州桑拿网 is estimated to be higher than the average level of the A-share education industry, maintaining the “recommended” level.

Risk reminders: policies, performance is not up to expectations, operation management, brand reputation, competition, brain drain, industry estimation center moves down, controlling shareholders and other risks.

Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (600557): Ginkgolides continued to grow in volume and accelerated growth in performance

Kangyuan Pharmaceutical (600557): Ginkgolides continued to grow in volume and accelerated growth in performance

Performance summary: The company achieved operating income in the first half of 201922.

60,000 yuan, an annual increase of 22.

6%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

40,000 yuan, an increase of 20 in ten years.

4%.

The growth of revenue and performance accelerated, and new varieties such as ginkgo di-doped lactones showed outstanding growth.

In the second quarter of 2019, realized income and net profit attributable to mothers were 11 respectively.

8 billion, 1.

3 billion, an annual increase of 24.

6%, 22.

6%.

The accelerated growth of the company’s revenue and performance was mainly driven by the rapid volume of new varieties such as ginkgo xylenolide, Jinzhen oral liquid, and Guizhi Fuling capsules.

The company’s largest single product Redu Ning was affected by policies such as secondary bargaining by hospitals and sales rates below secondary hospitals, and its sales income was basically stable.

Sample hospital data shows that the company’s right-year growth rate in the United States has exceeded 30% in the past ten years, and it is a single product with accelerated growth among the company’s hundreds of millions of varieties.

In 2019H1, the company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 79.

6%, an increase of 4 per year.

4 units, mainly due to the rapid volume of Ginkgo bilobalide, lactone and other varieties.

2019H1 selling expenses 49.

2%, higher than the same period last year 3.

1 unit; management expenses 3.

6%, basically the same as last year.

With Chinese medicine as the core, increase investment in research and development, and actively expand the field of innovative medicines.

2019H1 company R & D investment 2.

7 ‰, an increase of 49% in ten years, and the ratio of research and development expenses to operating income was 11.

8%, both absolute and absolute, have reached the level of domestic mainstream pharmaceutical companies.

In the field of research and development, the company actively deploys the chemical medicine industry while focusing on the traditional Chinese medicine industry. In September 2016, the company and Nanjing Warwick Pharmaceuticals established a joint venture subsidiary “Kangyuan Warwick”. The company holds 60% of the shares as the company’s chemical drug research and developmentplatform.

The company has achieved significant research and development results.In 2019H1, the company obtained two clinical approvals for Class 1 chemical innovative drugs. A total of 6 Class 1 chemical 返回码: 500 网站打不开?重查 drugs are under investigation, involving major indications such as anti-tumor, dementia, and schizophrenia.

In addition, the company continues to conduct evidence-based clinical re-evaluation research and basic research around large varieties of Chinese medicines that have been listed. It has completed a variety of material foundations and mechanisms of action such as Jinzhen Oral Liquid, and has steadily promoted the injection of ginkgo xylideClinical tests on 5 varieties including liquid and liquid.

Profit forecast and rating.

It is expected that EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.

88 yuan, 1.

10 yuan, 1.

32 yuan, the net profit attributable to the mother in the next three years will maintain a compound length of 22%.

Benefiting from the rapid advancement of new medical insurance, ginkgo dibutyl lactone, Jinzhen 深圳桑拿网 oral liquid and other varieties, the company’s short-term performance has grown rapidly; the layout of the chemical drug platform provides a large number of generic and innovative drug varieties for the company’s mid- and long-term development.

With reference to the estimation of the Chinese medicine industry, the average valuation of comparable companies in the industry is 13 in 2019.

8 times PE, the company’s current PE is 18 times, covering for the first time, giving an “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: Reduning sales continue to be dispersed due to clinical restrictions, and drug development progress is not as expected.

Yisheng shares (002458): Performance in line with expectations

Yisheng shares (002458): Performance in line with expectations
The return to mother’s net profit in 2019 is +499 for ten years.7%, in line with expectations Yisheng shares announced 2019 results: revenue 35.84 trillion, +143 a year.3%; net profit attributable to mother 21.76 trillion, +499 ten years ago.7%, corresponding to a profit of 3.78 yuan, the performance is in line with the market 北京会所体验网 and our expectations. Rising volume and price drive the company’s performance to maximize growth.The price of poultry and livestock increased in 2019, the company’s profitability improved, and its combined gross profit margin and net profit margin increased by +28 respectively.4ppt, +36.1ppt to 65.3%, 60.7%.At the same time, the company’s production and sales scale expanded, and the sales of chicken seedlings increased by +21.99%. In addition, the company’s period expense ratio (including research and development) is -4 per year.8ppt to 6.6%.The company’s investment income increases by 78.58 million yuan each year, mainly from the long-term equity investment income of the participating company Beidahuangbaoquan. Development trend Short-term bird prices are down, and some local bird prices are trending upward. The price of chickens has weakened after the Spring Festival. We judge that the reasons are as follows.The target may affect the price of chicken seedlings. Second, the bird flu epidemic has a certain impact on terminal consumption.However, we believe that the impact will be reflected in the short term. After the epidemic is stable, we judge that the price of poultry is still advancing to maintain a high position.From the supply side, according to data from the Poultry Industry Association, the annual introduction of white feather chicken ancestors will be + 64% to 1.22 million sets in 2019. The increase in ancestor introduction will gradually be transformed into terminal poultry meat supply.Available supplies will all be up.From the demand side, as the gap between the supply and demand of live pigs continues to increase, the consumption of chicken to pork has increased, and demand continues to support prices.For Probiotics, we consider that the price of chicken seedlings this year will be better, and the company’s chicken seedling profitability is guaranteed.At the same time, we expect that the company will continue to expand production this year. Parents will replace chicks and commercial chicks will increase by about 50% and 15% each year. The increase in sales will also contribute to performance. The strategic layout of breeding pig breeding business is expected to bring performance flexibility in the long run: the company has recently accelerated the expansion of breeding pig breeding scales, and has successively established breeding pig subsidiaries in Hebei, Shandong and other places, and has an interest cooperation agreement with the People’s Government of Hekou District, Dongying City, Shandong Province. For the first original breeding pig farm project, the company expects that the new production capacity will be gradually implemented by the end of 2020.Looking forward, we believe that the company’s strategic layout of breeding pig breeding business is expected to increase long-term profitability, enrich business structure and stabilize changes in performance. Earnings forecast and forecast correspond to 8/13 times P / E in 2020/21.We maintain our forecast of net profit attributable to mothers for 2020/2123.00/13.00 trillion unchanged, while maintaining a target price of 32.0 yuan, the target price corresponds to 8/14 times P / E in 2020/21, + 7% space.Maintain Outperform rating. Risk scale Animal epidemic risk; introduction of significant upside risks; uncertainty in import policies.