Changyuan Power (000966): Power generation growth improves profitability, expects Haoji Railway to release coal price elasticity

Changyuan Power (000966): Power generation growth improves profitability, expects Haoji Railway to release coal price elasticity
The company released its 2019 Interim Report.In the first half of the year, it achieved operating revenue of approximately 3.4 billion, with an annual increase of 17.74%; net profit attributable to mother is about 2.55 ppm, a year-on-year increase of 955%, in line with Shen Wanwanyuan’s expectations. Key points of investment: The improvement of power generation efficiency and the decline in coal prices have driven continuous high growth in the first half of the year.In the first half of the year, the manufacturing industry in Hubei Province and the high-tech industry grew rapidly, driving a continuous high growth in the demand for electricity and the increase in electricity consumption.83%, higher than the national average of 3.83 averages.Due to the dry up of incoming hydropower in Hubei Province in the same period, hydropower output decreased, and thermal power supply increased.The company completed 88 generations in the first half of the year.4.4 billion degrees, an increase of 16 in ten years.34%.The increase in electricity sales has driven annual revenue growth of 17%.74%.In the first half of the year, the company’s integrated standard coal price was 747 yuan / ton, a continuous decline of 32.42 yuan / ton, down 4 before.16%.Due to the decline in coal prices, the gross profit margin of the power business decreased and increased7.22 single companies, the company’s net profit attributable to mother increased by 955% every year.Increasing power generation and falling coal prices have resulted in a net increase in operating profit of approximately 2.900 million.In the first half of the year, the sales quality could be improved, and operating profit increased by approximately 10.8 million yuan. The Haoji Railway (formerly the Menghua Railway) is expected to open to traffic in 10 months, and it is expected that the elasticity of coal price performance will be further released.Central China is the region where thermal power companies have suffered the most since the coal supply-side reform. High coal prices are mainly due to poor transportation, limited capacity of the State Railway, and the proportion of Haijin River transport increasing year by year.The Haoji Railway is expected to start production in October this year, which is expected to completely reshape the coal supply and demand pattern in central China.The initial capacity of the plant is 6000 years / year. Based on the construction progress of the dredging project, we judge that it will be mainly put into Hubei Province. According to the calculation of 50% capacity, it can replace 60% of Haijinjiang coal in the province.At present, the freight of Shaanxi-Mongolia coal into the river through the sea to Hubei is more than 300 yuan. We estimate that the transportation cost can be reduced by 60-80 yuan / ton through the Haoji Railway. The company and Shenhua Group belong to the National Energy Group and belong to the adjacent Haoji Railway, which is expected to take the lead in enjoying the dividends brought by the reduction of freight rates. Emerging manufacturing has driven Hubei’s power demand to maintain a high growth rate, and the company tried to continue to climb by using hours.We believe that Hubei Province is committed to the advantages of rapid development of manufacturing to maintain a high growth rate of electricity demand.From January 深圳桑拿网 to July, electricity consumption increased by 7.49%, higher than the national average of 2.87 units.In July, Hubei’s manufacturing power consumption increased by 10 per year.35%, among which the traditional chemical, black, non-metallic mineral products and other industries have seen steady growth in electricity consumption. The emerging computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries have continued to grow at a rapid rate of about 40% this year.Every July in Hubei Province, hydropower generation fell by 10.07% (excluding the Three Gorges).That month, Hubei Province’s thermal power generation 138.At 7.4 billion kilowatt-hours, the single-month power generation reached a record high and a ten-year high growth.33%.Thermal power generation accounted for 63% of the entire society’s electricity consumption that month.86%, the main main supporting role of guarantee supply.The power supply tension that lasted until August, including the thermal power unit inside the reserve peak shaving unit, was also fully operational. Earnings forecast and estimation: With reference to the results of the interim report, we maintain the company’s net profit forecast for its mother company for 19-21 to 6.53, 8.72, 9.41 trillion, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 9, 7, and 7 times.The company is a potentially definitive target for the commissioning of the Haoji Railway, and Hubei Province ‘s high-speed power consumption growth promotion belt promotes the continuous improvement of power generation efficiency and maintains a “Buy” rating.